It is somewhat ironic that our industry often views mobile and fixed broadband as competing alternatives for consumer spending. Although the technologies compete in some instances, there is a strong co-dependence between mobile and fixed access so it seems natural that, as the networks transform, the strategies should align.
A recent press release from Areso highlights a couple of interesting data points. First, 1% of mobile broadband users now consume 50% of downlink capacity offered by mobile operators. This is similar to the wireline broadband network rule of thumb that postulates 20% of subscribers consume 80% of available uplink capacity.
Secondly, iterative improvements in technology results in dramatic increases in consumption. For example according to Areso’s study, users of Apple’s iPhone 4s (the Siri model) consume 2x as much bandwidth as iPhone 4 users and 3x as much as 3G users. With increased device familiarity and functionality – even marginal increases – network planners can expect significant increases in bandwidth consumption.
Sandvine, a recognized leader in traffic analysis, recently projected that 95% of tablets will rely primarily on fixed broadband networks. Tablets are just part of an expected surge in number of media enabled mobile devices which also include Blu-ray players, Internet connected TVs and stand-alone STBs.
With the Sandvine data in mind, it’s obvious that mobile operators will try to offload as much traffic as possible in order to stave off network congestion. Combined with financial incentive – a recent article from GigaOM suggests transport costs for mobile broadband are as much as 200x more than fixed – we can conclude that mobile broadband devices will also drive growth in fixed broadband.
As the number of media enabled mobile devices expands, we can expect continued growth in fixed broadband demand. It’s almost as if the killer app in broadband is mobile network offload, an interesting co-dependency.
Of course, there is an unspoken presumption that fixed broadband will forever be based on the ‘all-you-can-eat’ principle. But that’s topic for another day.
